Synchronous and Asynchronous Modes of Ukraine in NATO: A Tool of Small Alliances

Abstract

This article examines the current state and possible ways of Ukraine’s integration into the Euro-Atlantic security architecture in the conditions of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The level of perspective and effectiveness of the grand strategy of small alliances as a tool for Ukraine's asynchronous movement towards full membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been assessed. The most effective small alliances with the participation of Ukraine were analysed. Namely, the Lublin triangle (Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania), the tripartite format Ukraine-Romania- Republic of Moldova, the military-political alliance of Ukraine, Poland and Great Britain. An analysis of the feasibility of implementation of the Israeli model of security guarantees in Ukraine and its possible role in the issue of creating conditions for Ukraine's accession to NATO was carried out. It was determined that a similar model, according to which Ukraine is offered the status of the main ally of the US outside NATO, can be used on the condition that it does not become an alternative to membership in the Alliance. And it will only ensure the stability of Ukraine during the transit period. Security guarantees should be enshrined in the form of legal obligations to avoid a repeat of the negative legacy of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. The article summarizes the results of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Vilnius in 2023 and its impact on the security situation in Ukraine. The absence of a political decision among the participating countries on Ukraine's membership in NATO in the short- and medium-term perspective was recorded. It is hypothesized that Ukraine will move towards membership in the defence bloc in two ways: synchronously – through the Ukraine-NATO Council according to bureaucratic norms, and asynchronously – through the instrument of small alliances, bilateral treaties and following the example of the Israeli model adapted to the conditions of the Russo-Ukrainian war.