China’s External Security Risks: Forecasts and Development Scenarios

Abstract

The article conducts comprehensive research and multiple analyzes to identify the external security risks that have the greatest impact on China. Based on the results of international research centers and scientific works, scientists have identified the following risks that will affect China’s security in the future: the Sino-American strategic game, unrest in the Taiwan Strait, security along the Belt and Road, the nuclear and missile nebula in the Northeast Asia, the mutation of the new corona virus, the slowdown of the world economy, black gold, the crisis in Ukraine and the dilemma of Sino-European relations. In this article, the author’s attention is focused on Sino-American and China-EU relations. It has been established that China’s national security depends to a certain extent on China-EU relations as a result of geopolitical tensions and the domestic political situation in the main EU members. Sino-American relations are of great importance not only for the two countries, but also for the whole world. China's international policy is influenced by geopolitical and regional conflicts in the world and the actions of other geopolitically active players. The Russian-Ukrainian war is developing a special influence on the balance of power and relations between China, the USA and Europe. The “One Belt, One Road” project launched by China can significantly influence world politics and lead to a change in the structure of trade and economic relations. In the next ten years, this Chinese initiative will remain the largest macroeconomic project in the world. The completion of the “One Belt, One Road” project is scheduled for 2049, which should lead to the consolidation of the vast European-Asian space and part of Africa - these are 65 countries with a population of more than 4 billion people. The main scenarios of the development of events that will take place in China in the event of the influence of the specified factors are considered. China's policy shows that in order to deal with major risks in the future, China will continue to make more concrete contributions, solve more practical problems, and ease conflicts between major powers through cooperation at the global level.