Оцінка сучасних загроз національній безпеці країн Балтії та Фінляндії  в контексті російсько-української війни

Anastasiia Prystash

doi:10.31861/mhpi2025.51.31-45

Authors

Anastasiia Prystash Military Institute of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5534-3578

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31861/mhpi2025.51.31-45

Keywords:

security, international security, regional and global security, cooperation, transformation, threats, defence, Russia-Ukraine war

Abstract

The large-scale invasion of Ukrainian territory by Russia has forced NATO member states to actualize the issue of identifying weaknesses in the defense system, finding solutions to strengthen borders, and deepening military cooperation to counter the aggression. This research aims to analyze the current threats to the national security of the Baltic States and the Republic of Finland in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war and identify further potential areas of military cooperation with Ukraine.

To achieve this objective, general scientific research methods were used, including analysis and synthesis, content analysis, comparison, and classification. These research methods allowed for an analysis of the security environment of the Baltic States and Finland, with particular attention paid to current military and political threats to their national security.

The article reveals the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the formation of further tasks in implementing the foreign policy of the Baltic States and Finland in the context of the transformation of the international security system. In particular, the author identifies the spheres, tools, and methods of Russia's direct influence. Based on the analysis, the author confirms the importance of developing cooperation between Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and Ukraine in the military-political sphere as a necessary step in strengthening the European security system as a whole. Therefore, the relevant conclusions in this area of research are formulated.

Author Biography

Anastasiia Prystash, Military Institute of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

PhD student

References

Zagurska-Antoniuk V. (2020) “Mizhnarodna bezpeka u konteksti hlobalizatsii suchasnoho svitu” [“International safety is in the context of globalization of the modern world”], Investytsii: praktyka ta dosvid [Investments: practice and experience], № 13-14, p. 103-109. Available at: http://www.investplan.com.ua/pdf/13-14_2020/18.pdf (accessed 10 March 2025). DOI: https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6814.2020.13-14.103

Lupatsii V. (2024) “Dlia nykh Rosiia tezh zahroza. Vazhlyvi soiuznyky dlia Ukrainy” [“For them, Russia is also a threat. Important allies for Ukraine”], Dzerkalo tyzhnia [Mirror of the week]. Available at: https://zn.ua/ukr/WORLD/dlja-nikh-rosija-tezh-zahroza-vazhlivi-sojuzniki-dlja-ukrajini.html (accessed 10 March 2025).

Palii H.(2024) “Zmitsnennia bezpeky krain Baltii v konteksti zminy stratehichnoi kontseptsii oborony NATO. Znachennia dlia Ukrainy” [“Security of the Baltic States in the Context of Changes in NATO's Strategic Defense Concept. The significance for Ukraine”], Natsionalnyi instytut stratehichnykh doslidzhen [Center for Foreign Policy Studies NISS]. Available at: https://niss.gov.ua/news/komentari-ekspertiv/zmitsnennya-bezpeky-krayin-baltiyi-v-konteksti-zminy-stratehichnoyi (accessed 10 March 2025).

Sukhobokova O. (2022) “Humanitarna dopomoha krain Baltii Ukraini na pochatku povnomasshtabnoi viiny Rosii proty Ukrainy (liutyi – traven 2022)” [“Humanitarian assistance from the Baltic states to Ukraine at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine (February – May 2022)”], European Historical Studies, 21, pp. 113-127. Available at: http://eustudies.history.knu.ua/humanitarian-assistance-from-the-baltic-states-to-ukraine-at-the-beginning-of-russia-s-full-scale-war-against-ukraine-february-may-2022/ (accessed 10 March 2025). DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/2524-048X.2022.21.8

Defence Intelligence and Security Service under the Ministry of National Defence and State Security Department of the Republic of Lithuania (2024) National Threat Assessment. Military Cartography Centre of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, Kaunas, pp. 1-41. Available at: https://www.vsd.lt/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/GR-2024-02-15-EN-1.pdf (accessed 10 March 2025).

Estonian Foreign Intelligent Service (2024) International Security and Estonia 2024, pp. 1-86. Available at: https://raport.valisluureamet.ee/2024/en/ (accessed 10 March 2025).

Kaczmarek, K. (2024) “Finland in the light of cyber threats in the context of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine”, Cybersecurity and Law, 9 (1), pp 204-214. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/377598951_Finland_in_the_light_of_cyber_threats_in_the_context_of_Russia's_aggression_against_Ukraine (accessed 10 March 2025). DOI: https://doi.org/10.35467/cal/169316

Kariņš K. (2024) “Introductory remarks by the Minister of Foreign Affairs”, in Broka S., Bukovskis K. (Еds) (2024) The Latvian Foreign and Security Policy Yearbook 2024. Latvian Institute of International Affairs, Riga, p. 10-14. Available at: https://www.liia.lv/en/publications/latvian-foreign-and-security-policy-yearbook-2024-1188 (accessed 10 March 2025).

Mūrniece, I. (2025) “The Time of Unused Opportunities: Ukraine and its Allies”, The Latvian Foreign and Security Policy Yearbook, pp. 1-200. Available at: https://www.liia.lv/en/publications/latvian-foreign-and-security-policy-yearbook-2025-1359 (accessed 10 March 2025).

NATO (2023) NATO 2022 Strategic Concept. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_210907.htm (accessed 10 March 2025).

Rostoks T. (2024) Latvia’s security and transatlantic relations: from Vilnius to Washington, in Broka S., Bukovskis K. (Еds) (2024) The Latvian Foreign and Security Policy Yearbook 2024. Latvian Institute of International Affairs, Riga, p. 35-45. Available at: https://www.liia.lv/en/publications/latvian-foreign-and-security-policy-yearbook-2024-1188 (accessed 10 March 2025).

The Government Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland (2024) The Government Report on Finnish Foreign and Security Policy, pp. 1-55. Available at: https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/165723/VN_2024_35.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y (accessed 10 March 2025).

Zdzisław, Ś. (2023) “The Impact of Russian Aggression Against Ukraine on Estonian Security”, Studia Europejskie-Studies in European Affairs, 4, p. 71-92. Available at: https://journalse.com/the-impact-of-russian-aggression-against-ukraine-on-estonian-security (accessed 10 March 2025). DOI: https://doi.org/10.33067/SE.4.2023.5