Evolution of Attitudes Toward Russia in the National Security Strategies of Ukraine’s Neighboring States (2004-2023)

Abstract

The article examines the impact of Russia's military invasion of Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014), the annexation of Crimea, the occupation of part of Ukrainian territories by the Russians, and the full-scale Russian military invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, on the evolution of attitudes toward Russia in the National Security Strategies of Ukraine's neighboring states (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova).

As a result of the analysis of the National Security Strategies of Ukraine's neighboring states, the author identified four stages in the evolution of their attitudes toward Russia and characterizes the strategic positions of these states regarding Russia's aggressive foreign policy and counteraction to it.

It has been established that the key reason for the changes in the attitude toward Russia, recorded in the National Security Strategies of Ukraine's western neighbors (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova) after 2008, 2014 and 2022, was the direct military aggression against Georgia and Ukraine by the Russian Federation, its violation of the norms of international law, and the potential threat of further Russian expansion toward those European countries bordering Ukraine.

It has been determined that the attitudes toward Russia, as reflected in the latest NSSs of the mentioned countries, are not the same. Poland, Romania, and Moldova clearly articulate their stance toward Russia's aggressive foreign policy, while Slovakia and Hungary – although they mention the threats to Europe's security from Russia and the potential possibility of confrontation – believe in the possibility of political dialogue and pragmatic relations with the Kremlin.

It was found that an additional factor influencing the evolution of attitudes toward Russia and the introduction of corresponding changes to the NSS of the states under consideration were the political preferences of the ruling forces of these states. These forces, at different periods, held both anti-Russian and pro-Russian positions. Moreover, in the latter case, the authorities did not always respond in a timely and adequate manner to threats to the national security of their states and did not make corresponding changes to the National Security Strategy that would correspond to objective realities.