Поширення політичних ідеологій в Україну під час війни: як використовувати попередні підходи у нових умовах?

Vitaliy Motsok

doi:10.31861/mhpi2023.47.253-265

Authors

Vitaliy Motsok Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3963-4807

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31861/mhpi2023.47.253-265

Keywords:

Ukraine crisis, war, Ukraine, Russia

Abstract

The article deals with the promotion of ideological leverages by leasing Western states and integration associations, as well as the RF and its allies, regarding Ukraine during Ukrainian crisis. The transition to full-scale armed conflict makes the geological fight for Ukraine between these two collective actors even more conceptual and fundamental in terms of its development and conclusion. The main question is: whether it is worth to use previous approaches to promote ideological values regarding Ukraine in the conditions of full-scale war. This problem is relevant both for Western concepts of promoting liberal values and Russian ideological levers. The main hypothesis implies that the promotion of external ideological values could be ineffective in the conditions of a domestic political crisis in the recipient country caused by full-scale military conflict. We consider Ukrainian crisis of 2013-2022 as s significant motivating factor that allowed external actors to actively promote their ideological values regarding Ukraine. However, the conditions for exporting ideological narratives with the beginning of full-scale military conflict in 2022-2023 turned out to be unfavorable. This is true for both opposing sides in the war in Ukraine. The article consists of two parts: the first deals with the resources of democracy promotion regarding Ukraine during the development of the Ukrainian crisis 2013-2022 and full-scale military conflict of 2022-2023. The second is aimed at determining the Russian ideological resources that were involved during this period and served as a conceptual framework for the Russian state’s foreign policy strategy in the post-Soviet space. It is concluded that the previous approaches for spreading of ideological influences lost their effectiveness in the conditions of a full-scale war, since it was quite fair that “soft” instruments were weaker to “hard” ones in the matter of the geopolitical fight for Ukraine.

Author Biography

Vitaliy Motsok, Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University

Candidate of Political Science, Associate Professor, Department of International Relations and Public Communications

References

Ademmer, E., Delcour, L., Wolczuk, K. (2016), Beyond geopolitics: exploring the impact of the EU and Russia in the “contested neighborhood, Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.57, №1, pp. 1-18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2016.1183221

Averre, D., Wolczuk, K. (2016), Introduction: The Ukraine Crisis and Post-Post-Cold War Europe, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.68, №4, pp. 551-555. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2016.1176690

Averre, D. (2007), “Sovereign Democracy” and Russia’s Relations with the European Union, Demokratizatsiya, Vol. 15, № 2, pp. 173-190. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3200/DEMO.15.2.173-190

Bindman, E. (2015), The state, civil society and social rights in contemporary Russia, East European Politics, Vol. 31, № 3, pр. 342-360. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2015.1063488

Burkhardt, F. (2021), Institutionalising Authoritarian Presidencies: Polymorphous Power and Russia's Presidential Administration, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.73, №3, pp. 472-504. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2020.1749566

Burnell, P. (2010), Is There a New Autocracy Promotion?, Working paper, March (Madrid, FRIDE), available at: https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/130597/WP96_Autocracy_ENG_mar10.pdf [13.02.2023]

Cameron, D. R., Orenstein, M. A. (2012), Post-Soviet Authoritarianism: The Influence of Russia in its “Near Abroad”, Post-Soviet Affairs, Vol.28, №1, pp. 1-44. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2747/1060-586X.28.1.1

Carothers, T. (2002), The end of the transition paradigm, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 13, № 1, pр. 5-21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2002.0003

Casier, T. (2022), Russia and the diffusion of political norms: the perfect rival?, Democratization, Vol.29, №3, рp. 433-450. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2021.1928078

Chaisty, P. (2014), Presidential dynamics and legislative velocity in Russia, 1994-2007, East European Politics, Vol. 30, № 4, рp. 588-601. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2014.964393

Delcour, L., Wolczuk, К. (2015), Spoiler or Facilitator of Democratization?: Russia's Role in Georgia and Ukraine, Democratization, Vol.22, № 3, рp. 459-478. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2014.996135

Dembinska, M., Smith, D. (2021), Navigating in between the EU and Russia, Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol. 62 № 3, рp. 247-263. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2021.1932544

Dragneva-Lewers, R., Wolczuk, K. (auth.) (2015), Ukraine Between the EU and Russia: The Integration Challenge, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 148 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137516268

Dudko, О. (2022), A conceptual limbo of genocide: Russian rhetoric, mass atrocities in Ukraine, and the current definition's limits, Canadian Slavonic Papers, Vol.64, № 2-3, рp. 133-145. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00085006.2022.2106691

Engstrom, M. (2014), Contemporary Russian Messianism and New Russian Foreign Policy, Contemporary Security Policy, Vol.35, № 3, pр. 356-379. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2014.965888

Feklyunina, V. (2016), Soft Power and Identity: Russia, Ukraine and the 'Russian World(s)`, European Journal of International Relations, Vol.22, №4, рр. 773-796. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066115601200

Fish, M.S. (2017), The Kremlin Emboldened What is Putinism? Journal of Democracy, Vol. 28, № 4, pр. 61-75. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2017.0066

Frear M., Mazepus, H. (2021), Security, Civilisation and Modernisation: Continuity and Change in the Russian Foreign Policy Discourse, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.73, №7, pp. 1215-1235. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2020.1843601

Golosov, G.V. (2014), Authoritarian Electoral Engineering and its Limits: A Curious Case of the Imperiali Highest Averages Method in Russia, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 66, № 10, рр. 1611-1628. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2014.967553

Gotz, E. (2022), Near Abroad: Russia's Role in Post-Soviet Eurasia, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.74, №9, рp. 1529-1550. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2022.2133086

Gotz, E., Staun, J. (2022), Why Russia attacked Ukraine: Strategic culture and radicalized narratives, Contemporary Security Policy, Vol.43, №3, рp. 482-497. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2022.2082633

Gudkov, L. (2011), The Nature of “Putinism”, Russian Politics and Law, Vol.49, № 2, pp. 7-33. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2753/RUP1061-1940490201

Hassner, P. (2008), Russia’s Transition to Autocracy, Journal of Democracy, Vol.19, № 2, pp. 5-15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2008.0022

Honig, A.-L., Tumenbaeva, S. (2022), Democratic decline in the EU and its effect on democracy promotion in Central Asia, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Vol.35, №4, pp. 424-458. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2022.2078685

Hurak, I., D’Anieri, P. (2022), The Evolution of Russian Political Tactics in Ukraine, Problems of Post-Communism, Vol.69, № 2, pp. 121-132. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2020.1819162

Jackson, N. (2010), The Role of External Factors in Advancing Non-Liberal Democratic Forms of Political Rule: A Case Study of Russia’s Influence on Central Asian Regimes, Contemporary Politics, Vol.16, №1. рp. 101-118. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13569771003593920

Kolsto, P. (2021), Authoritarian Diffusion, or the Geopolitics of Self-Interest? Evidence from Russia’s Patron-Client Relations with Eurasia’s De Facto States, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.73, № 5, pp. 890-912. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2020.1806209

Krastev, I. (2011), Paradoxes of the New Authoritarianism, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 22, № 2, р. 5-16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2011.0027

Kuzio, T. (2016), Nationalism and authoritarianism in Russia: Introduction to the special issue, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 49, № 1, pp. 1-11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2015.12.002

Laruelle, M. (2020), Making Sense of Russia’s Illiberalism, Journal of Democracy, Vol.31, № 3, pp. 115-129. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2020.0049

Linde, F. (2016), The Civilizational Turn in Russian Political Discourse: From Pan-Europeanism to Civilizational Distinctiveness, Russian Review, Vol.75, № 4. рр.604-625. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/russ.12105

Makarychev, A., Yatsyк А. (2020), Critical Biopolitics of the Post-Soviet: From Populations to Nations. Lanham: Lexington Books.

Martyanov, V. (2005), The Evolution of Key Russian Political Discourse: from ‘Western Democracy’ to ‘the Quality of Democracy, Perspectives on European Politics and Society, Vol. 6, № 2, рp. 175-191. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15705850508438913

Milevski, T. (2015), Identifying the new Eurasian orientation in modern Russian geopolitical thought, Eastern Journal of European Studies, Vol. 6, № 2, pр. 177-187.

Mochtak, M., Holzer, J. (2017), Electoral Violence in Putin's Russia: Modern Authoritarianism in Practice, Studies of Transition States and Societies, Vol. 9, №1, рр. 35-52. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315225319-2

Motyl, A.J. (2016), Putin's Russia as a fascist political system, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 49, № 1, pp. 25-36. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2016.01.002

Nychyk, A. (2023), The Geopolitical Chess Game: Ukraine's Interactions with the EU and Russia at the Onset of the War in Donbas”, Problems of Post-Communism, available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10758216.2023.2177174 [15.02.2023]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2023.2177174

Orenstein, M.A. (2015), Geopolitics of a Divided Europe”, East European Politics and Societies and Cultures, Vol.29, №2, pp. 531-540. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0888325414559050

Petrov, N. (2011), The Political Mechanics of the Russian Regime. Substitutes Versus Institutions”, Russian politics and law, Vol. 49, № 2, pр. 34-69. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2753/RUP1061-1940490202

Pintsch А., Hammerschmidt D., Meyer С. (2022) Introduction: the decline of democracy and rise of populism in Europe and their effect on democracy promotion”, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Vol.35, №4, pp. 405-423. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2022.2082797

Ranking of Countries by Quality of Democracy, available at: https://www.democracymatrix. com/ranking [11.02.2023].

Robertson, G.B. (2009), Managing Society: Protest, Civil Society, and Regime in Putin’s Russia, Slavic Review, Vol. 68, № 3, pp. 528-547. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0037677900019719

Shakleyina, T.A., Bogaturov, A.D. (2004), The Russian Realist school of international relations, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, №37, рр. 37-51. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2003.12.002

Shlapentokh, V. (2009), Perceptions of foreign threats to the regime: From Lenin to Putin, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 42, № 3, pр. 305-324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2009.07.003

Silitski, V. (2009), Tools of Autocracy, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 20, № 2, pp. 42-46. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.0.0067

Suslov, M. (2012), Geographical Metanarratives in Russia and the European East: Contemporary Pan-Slavism, Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol. 53, №5, рp. 575-595. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2747/1539-7216.53.5.575

Suslov, M. (2018), ‘Russian World’ Concept: Post-Soviet Geopolitical Ideology and the Logic of ‘Spheres of Influence`, Geopolitics, Vol.23, № 2, pp. 330-353. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2017.1407921

Tsygankov, A. P., Parker, D. (2015), The securitization of democracy: Freedom House ratings of Russia, European Security, Vol. 24, № 1, pp. 77-100. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09662839.2014.968775

Way, L. (2015) The Limits of Autocracy Promotion: The Case of Russia in the “Near Abroad, European Journal of Political Research, Vol.54, № 4, pр. 691-706. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12092

Wolczuk, K. (2019) State Building and European Integration in Ukraine, Eurasian Geography and Economics, Vol.60, № 6, pp. 736-754. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2019.1655463

Zaporozhchenko, R. (2023), The End of “Putin’s Empire?” Ontological Problems of Russian Imperialism in the Context of the War against Ukraine” Problems of Post-Communism, available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/10758216.2022.2158873?needAccess=true&role=button [22.02.2023] DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2022.2158873

Zhurzhenko, T. (2021), Fighting Empire, Weaponising Culture: The Conflict with Russia and the Restrictions on Russian Mass Culture in Post-Maidan Ukraine”, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.73, №8, pp. 1441-1466. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2021.1944990

Zielonka J., Rupnik J. (2020) From Revolution to ‘Counter Revolution’: Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe 30 Years On, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.72, № 6, pp. 1073-1099. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2020.1784394