Перевороти в Західній Африці: чи є кінець регіональній нестабільності?

Iryna Zaporizka

doi:10.31861/mhpi2024.49.84-97

Authors

Iryna Zaporizka Taras Shevchenko Kyiv National University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9935-7736

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31861/mhpi2024.49.84-97

Keywords:

West Africa, military coup, political instability, ECOWAS, France, Russia, Türkiye

Abstract

Despite a positive tendency for democratization in Africa, the past four years have marked an unprecedented rise in the number of coups, the majority of which occurred in the geographically concentrated area, namely the region of West Africa. Since August 2020, 6 West African countries have experienced 11 coups, 7 of which resulted in the change of power in Mali, Burkina-Faso, Niger, Chad and Guinea. The article aims to analyze the key internal, regional, continental and global factors of the mentioned coups, identify their similar features along with their differences, and determine the effects of the coups on regional integration, interstate cooperation, and relations with great and emerging powers. The challenges in West African countries, namely poor socio-economic development, stagnation of national economies, population boom, widespread corruption, authoritarian rule, and others, are defined among the roots of the coups. The failure to address security challenges, including separatism in Northern Mali, terrorism and radical Islamism in the Sahel, is identified as the crucial issues in West Africa that pose a major threat to stability and democracy in the region. The rule of juntas has had a negative impact on the regional cooperation mechanisms, causing the dissolution of G5 Sahel and the formation of new security alliances, as well as jeopardizing the unity of ECOWAS, the major integration body in West Africa. Additionally, the series of coups resulted in changing power balance in the region, notably the fading dominance of France which was forced to withdraw its troops from Mali, Burkina-Faso and Niger, and the growing influence of emerging powers, including the presence of Russia through the Wagner Group, Türkiye’s humanitarian diplomacy and China’s expansion to West African arms market.

Author Biography

Iryna Zaporizka , Taras Shevchenko Kyiv National University

Postgraduate student of the Department of International Regional Studies

References

AFP (2023), “Mali’s junta gets warplanes, drones from Russia, Turkey”, available at: https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/03/16/Mali-s-junta-gets-warplanes-drones-from-Russia-Turkey (accessed: 18 March 2024).

Africanews (2023), “Mali adopts new mining code to raise gold concessions ownership”, available at: https://www.africanews.com/2023/08/31/mali-adopts-new-mining-code-to-raise-gold-concessions-ownership// (accessed: 8 January 2024).

Agenzia Nova (2023), “The Malian army enters the city of Kidal, a stronghold of the Tuareg groups”, available at: https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/lesercito-del-mali-entra-nella-citta-di-kidal-roccaforte-dei-gruppi-tuareg/ (accessed: 2 February 2024).

Al Jazeera (2020), “Guinea electoral body says Alpha Conde won third term in office”, available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/24/guinea-election-president-conde-wins-third-term-in-office (accessed: 12 January 2024).

Al Jazeera (2022), “Mali expels France envoy over ‘hostile and outrageous’ remarks”, available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/31/mali-expels-france-envoy-over-hostile-and-outrageous-remarks (accessed: 12 March 2024).

Arduino, A. (2024), “Wagner Group is now Africa Corps. What this means for Russia’s operations on the continent”, The Conversation, available at: https://theconversation.com/wagner-group-is-now-africa-corps-what-this-means-for-russias-operations-on-the-continent-223253 (accessed: 14 March 2024).

BBC (2020), “Cocaine and Guinea-Bissau: How Africa's 'narco-state' is trying to kick its habit”, available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52569130 (accessed: 28 February 2024).

Bish, A. (2019), “The second coming of West Africa’s cocaine trade?”, Global Initiative, available at: https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/the-second-coming-of-west-africas-cocaine-trade/ (accessed: 28 February 2024).

Burke, J. (2023), “Russian mercenaries behind slaughter of 500 in Mali village, UN report finds”, The Guardian, available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/20/russian-mercenaries-behind-slaughter-in-mali-village-un-report-finds (accessed: 17 March 2024).

Caruchet, M.-M. (2023), “Last French troops leave Niger, ending decade of Sahel missions”, France24, available at: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231222-%F0%9F%94%B4-last-french-troops-leave-niger-ending-decade-long-operation-in-the-sahel (accessed: 13 March 2024).

D’Amato, S. and Baldaro, E. (2022), “Counter-Terrorism in the Sahel: Increased Instability and Political TensionsЄ, ICCT, available at: https://www.icct.nl/publication/counter-terrorism-sahel-increased-instability-and-political-tensions (accessed: 12 January 2024).

Deveaux, J. (2019), “L’ancien président Blaise Compaoré, meilleur rempart contre les jihadistes ou Machiavel du Burkina?”, Franceinfo, available at: https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/afrique/burkina-faso/lancien-president-blaise-compaore-meilleur-rempart-contre-les-jihadistes-ou-machiavel-du-burkina_3442705.html (accessed: 12 January 2024).

Dieng, M. and Frowd, P. M. (2023), “Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have a new defence alliance: an expert view of its chances of success”, The Conversation, available at: https://theconversation.com/burkina-faso-mali-and-niger-have-a-new-defence-alliance-an-expert-view-of-its-chances-of-success-215863 (accessed: 7 March 2024).

Duzor, M. and Williamson, B. (2023), By the numbers: Coups in Africa, VOA Special Report, available at: https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/ (accessed: 20 March 2024).

Elischer, S. and Lawrance, B. N. (2022), “Reassessing Africa’s New Post-Coup Landscape”, African Studies Review, Cambridge University Press, Vol. 65 No. 1, pp. 1-7. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/asr.2022.33

Emir, M. (2023), “Niger Military Coup and International Reactions”, ResearchGate, available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372987224_Niger_Military_Coup_and_International_Reactions (accessed: 20 March 2024).

EnergyCapital&Power (2023), “Developing the Critical Mineral Value Chain in West Africa”, available at: https://energycapitalpower.com/critical-mineral-value-chain-in-west-africa/ (accessed: 3 January 2024).

Fisher, A. O. (2022), “ECOWAS, Democratic Governance and the Coup in Burkina Faso”, Devotion Journal of Community Service, Vol. 3 No. 13, pp. 2134-2145. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36418/dev.v3i13.268

France24 (2022), “Au Mali, des milliers de manifestants protestent contre les sanctions de la Cédéao”, available at: https://www.france24.com/fr/afrique/20220114-au-mali-des-milliers-de-manifestants-protestent-contre-les-sanctions-de-la-c%C3%A9d%C3%A9ao (accessed: 10 March 2024).

France24 (2023), “French army officially ends operations in Burkina Faso”, available at: https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230220-french-army-officially-ends-operations-in-burkina-faso (accessed: 13 March 2024).

France24 (2023), “La Mauritanie et le Tchad actent la dissolution de la force antijihadiste G5 Sahel”, available at: https://www.france24.com/fr/afrique/20231206-g5-sahel-mauritanie-tchad-dissolution-force-alliance-antijihadiste-mali-burkina-faso-niger (accessed: 7 March 2024).

France24 (2024), “West African bloc ECOWAS lifts sanctions against Guinea, Mali”, available at: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240225-%F0%9F%94%B4-west-african-bloc-ecowas-lifts-its-economic-sanctions-against-guinea-statement (accessed: 7 March 2024).

Grigoriadis, I. N. and Fusiek, D. A. (2022), “Turkey’s “anti-colonial” pivot to Mali: French-Turkish competition and the role of the European Union in the Sahel”, ELIAMEP, available at: https://www.eliamep.gr/en/publication/η-αντι-αποικιακή-στροφή-της-τουρκία/ (accessed: 18 March 2024).

Haidara, B. (2023), “A coup after coup in the Sahel”, IPS, available at: https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/democracy-and-society/a-coup-after-coup-in-the-sahel-6976/ (accessed: 7 March 2024).

Holthuijzen, W. and Maximillian, J. (2011), “Dry, hot, and brutal: Climate change and desertification in the Sahel of Mali”, Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, Vol. 13 No.7, pp. 245-268.

International Crisis Group (2021), “Mali, a Coup within a Coup”, available at: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/mali/mali-un-coup-dans-le-coup (accessed: 12 January 2024).

Inwood, J. and Tacchi, J. (2024), “Wagner in Africa: How the Russian mercenary group has rebranded”, BBC, available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68322230 (accessed: 20 March 2024).

Kanté, A. and Özkan, M. (2022), “West Africa and Turkey forge new security relations”, Institute for Security Studies, available at: https://issafrica.org/iss-today/west-africa-and-turkey-forge-new-security-relations (accessed: 20 March 2024).

King, I. (2022), “Africa’s Narco-State: An Attempted Coup and Drug Trafficking in Guinea-Bissau”, Harvard International Review, available at: https://hir.harvard.edu/narco-state-an-attempted-coup-and-drug-trafficking-in-guinea-bissau/ (accessed: 2 March 2024).

King, I. (2023), “How France Failed Mali: the End of Operation Barkhane”, Harvard International Review, available at: https://hir.harvard.edu/how-france-failed-mali-the-end-of-operation-barkhane/ (accessed: 12 March 2024).

Koné, H. (2020), “Sahel militaries need better governance to face the terror threat”, Institute for Security Studies, available at: https://issafrica.org/iss-today/sahel-militaries-need-better-governance-to-face-the-terror-threat (accessed: 9 February 2024).

Kulkarni, P. (2023), “Under French-backed military ruler Mahamat Deby, Chad is a ‘pressure cooker waiting to explode’”, Peoples Dispatch, available at: https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/09/23/under-french-backed-military-ruler-mahamat-deby-chad-is-a-pressure-cooker-waiting-to-explode/ (accessed: 12 January 2024).

Leali, G. (2023), “Niger coup sparks concerns about French, EU uranium dependency”, Politico, available at: https://www.politico.eu/article/niger-coup-spark-concerns-france-uranium-dependency/ (accessed: 8 January 2024).

Maad, A. (2023), “How dependent is France on Niger's uranium?”, Le Monde, available at: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2023/08/04/how-dependent-is-france-on-niger-s-uranium_6080772_8.html (accessed: 8 January 2024).

Matika, V. M. (2022), “West Africa and the Recurrence of Coups: a Probe into the Causes and Impacts On Regional Integration (the Case of Mali 2012-2022)”, ResearchGate, available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/364197651_west_africa_and_the_recurrence_of_coups_a_probe_into_the_causes_and_impacts_on_regional_integration_the_case_of_mali_2012-2022 (accessed: 20 March 2024).

Mohamed, H. (2023), “Analysis: What’s next for Mali after MINUSMA withdrawal?”, Al Jazeera, available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/3/what-next-for-mali-after-minusma-withdrawal (accessed: 18 February 2024).

Musibau, H. O., Shittu, W. O. and Yanotti, M. (2022), “Natural resources endowment: What more does West Africa need in order to grow?”, Resources Policy, Vol. 77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102669. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102669

Nichols, M. (2021), 'An epidemic' of coups, U.N. chief laments, urging Security Council to act, Reuters, available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/an-epidemic-coups-un-chief-laments-urging-security-council-act-2021-10-26/ (accessed: 20 March 2024).

Reuters (2024), “Gunfire heard in Chad's capital as government accuses opposition of inciting unrest”, available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/chad-government-says-several-people-killed-during-unrest-2024-02-28/ (accessed: 18 March 2024).

Rich, D. (2023), “G5 Sahel : le départ du Niger et du Burkina Faso confirme la "mort cérébrale" de l’organisation”, France24, available at: https://www.france24.com/fr/afrique/20231205-g5-sahel-le-d%C3%A9part-du-niger-et-du-burkina-faso-confirme-la-mort-c%C3%A9r%C3%A9brale-de-l-organisation (accessed: 7 March 2024).

Seibt, S. (2023), “Friends at any price: China seeks allies, arms markets in West Africa as French influence wanes”, France24, available at: https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230826-china-seeks-new-allies-and-arms-markets-in-west-africa-as-french-influence-wanes (accessed: 12 February 2024).

Tasamba, J. (2024), “Burkina Faso’s military government claims it thwarted another coup attempt”, Anadolu Agency, available at: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/burkina-faso-s-military-government-claims-it-thwarted-another-coup-attempt/3113793 (accessed: 18 March 2024).

Tasamba, J. (2024), “Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso create joint force to fight terrorism”, Anadolu Agency, available at: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/niger-mali-burkina-faso-create-joint-force-to-fight-terrorism/3158442 (accessed: 12 March 2024).

The Guardian (2022), “Protesters attack French embassy in Burkina Faso over allegedly harbouring ousted president”, available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/01/burkina-faso-african-unions-condemn-latest-power-grab (accessed: 10 March 2024).

The Heritage Foundation (2024), “The Index of Economic Freedom 2024”, available at: https://www.heritage.org/index/ (accessed: 21 March 2024).

The United Nations (2023), “List of LDCs”, available at: https://www.un.org/ohrlls/content/list-ldcs (accessed: 22 December 2023).

The World Bank (2023), “DataBank”, available at: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/jobs/Series/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS (accessed: 22 December 2023).

The World Bank (2023), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate)”, available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS (accessed: 22 December 2023).

The World Bank (2023), “GDP growth (annual %)”, available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=ML-GW-TD-NE-BF-GN-GA (accessed: 22 December 2023).

The World Bank (2023), “GDP per capita (current US$)”, available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=ML-GW-TD-NE-BF (accessed: 22 December 2023).

The World Bank (2023), “Population, total”, available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=TD-BF-GW-GN-ML (accessed: 22 December 2023).

The World Bank (2023), “Poverty headcount ratio at $2.15 a day (2017 PPP) (% of population)”, available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY?locations=ML-GW-TD-NE-BF-GN-GA (accessed: 22 December 2023).

Thompson, J., Doxsee, C. and Bermudez Jr., J. S. (2022), “Tracking the Arrival of Russia’s Wagner Group in Mali”, CSIS, available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/tracking-arrival-russias-wagner-group-mali (accessed: 14 March 2024).

Transparency International (2024), “Corruption Perception Index 2023”, available at: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023 (accessed: 21 March 2024).

TRT Afrika (2024), “French troops to stay in Chad after exit from Niger - Macron's envoy”, available at: https://www.trtafrika.com/africa/french-troops-to-stay-in-chad-after-niger-exit-macrons-envoy-17273386 (accessed: 13 March 2024).

Usigbe, L. (2019), “Drying Lake Chad Basin gives rise to crisis”, Africa Renewal, available at: https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2019-march-2020/drying-lake-chad-basin-gives-rise-crisis (accessed: 8 January 2024).

Weisberger, M. (2018), “The Sahara Desert Is Growing. Here's What That Means”, LiveScience, available at: https://www.livescience.com/62168-sahara-desert-expanding.html (accessed: 22 December 2023).