Japanese-Russian-Ukrainian Triangle: Mutual Influences under the Conditions of Russia’s Increasing Aggression

Abstract

Changes in Japanese-Russian relations against the background of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine are analysed. The purpose of the study is to consider the working hypothesis about the presence of mutual influences in the conditional triangle “Japan – Russia – Ukraine”. Hypothesis testing allows us to clarify the role of the issue of Ukraine’s territorial integrity for Japanese-Russian relations. The research methodology is based on an institutional analysis, with the help of which the decisions and positions of the state institutions of Japan, Russia and Ukraine, as well as their consequences for security at the regional and global levels, are studied. It is concluded that the influence of Ukraine on the content and nature of Japanese-Russian relations has been on the rise since 2014. It is proved that despite Japan’s national interest in developing relations with Russia in order to sign a peace treaty and return the Northern Territories, the annexation of Crimea strengthened Japan’s solidarity with the Collective West in pressure on Russia. Democratic values and norms of international law were placed by Japan above the pragmatic national interest. Russia’s policy regarding the temporarily occupied territory in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast (regions) and the subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine led to an upward escalation of tensions between Japan and Russia. The fact that no other factor had such consequences for Japanese-Russian relations as Russia’s policy towards Ukraine is emphasized. This gave grounds to talk about the configuration of relations in the conditional triangle “Japan – Russia – Ukraine”, where the relations of any two states determine the actions of a third state in response. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is positioned as a driving factor for changes in foreign, security, etc. policy of Japan.